Last week’s XAUUSD forecast indicated that gold continued its bearish trend, entering the 3200s range. With a reduction in global tensions, particularly regarding tariffs, investors are reallocating their resources from safe-haven assets to riskier investments like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

This week, gold seems poised to consolidate ahead of the major FOMC economic announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Let’s analyze the key pivot levels for purchasing and selling gold in this XAUUSD weekly forecast for May 5th to May 9th, 2025.

Summary of Last Week’s Forecast

If you followed last week’s forecast and executed a sell at the $3342-$3353 range, you likely saw a decline exceeding 1500 points in gold.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: $3200s acting as support, a pump back to $3500 soon? - 1
XAUUSD 1h chart – Source: Tradingview

Additionally, the anticipated buying levels for gold between $3247-$3193 have already resulted in a move upwards of 900 points so far.

Next, let’s explore the significant economic events scheduled for this week and their potential impacts on the XAUUSD price.

Crucial Economic Events This Week

A series of important U.S. economic reports are expected to be released this week, each of which could significantly influence XAUUSD.

Monday, May 5, ISM Services PMI:

This indicator assesses the economic health of the U.S. services sector. A lower reading may push gold prices up, indicating economic weakness, while a stronger report could enhance USD strength, likely resulting in lower gold prices.

Wednesday, May 7, FOMC Press Conference:

A press conference will follow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy statement. Traders will be on the lookout for hints regarding interest rate adjustments or the economic outlook, as these could lead to significant volatility in the XAUUSD.

Thursday, May 8: Unemployment Claims

This weekly report presents the number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits. If recession concerns re-emerge, an increase in this figure could suggest a weakening labor market, making gold a more attractive safe haven.

Gold HTF Overview

After two consecutive weeks of decline, gold is starting to show signs of a rebound. However, the weekly FVG for gold remains unfilled and is anticipated to be completed soon, creating a significant buying opportunity. The buying zone is identified at $3194-$3168, where bullish momentum is expected to build, offering a chance to enter a long position in gold.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: $3200s acting as support, a pump back to $3500 soon? - 2
XAUUSD 1w chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold Forecast for May 5th to May 9th

Gold opens this week with bullish momentum, yet significant supply zones loom above $3300. Immediate buying levels are identified in the 4-hour timeframe between $3259-$3239, where the 4-hour FVG aligns just below the order block, coinciding with the value area low of the bearish swing.

XAUUSD weekly forecast: $3200s acting as support, a pump back to $3500 soon? - 3
XAUUSD 4h chart – Source: Tradingview

A short position on XAUUSD can be initiated in the range of $3305-$3313, aligning with the POC level and the 1-hour bearish order block.

Trading Strategies & Investment Guidance

In summary, a prudent strategy for trading gold involves seeking buying opportunities at higher time frame levels while looking for selling opportunities at lower time frame levels. Make a note of these levels on your chart for clearer trading direction.

Support Levels

  • $3194-$3168 – weekly FVG
  • $3259-$3239 – 4h FVG and VAL

Resistance Levels

  • $3305-$3313 – 1hr OB and POC

Disclaimer: This article does not serve as investment advice. The information and materials presented here are intended solely for educational purposes.