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JIMMY MOYAHA: We are examining the future of employment as discussed by the World Economic Forum. In advance of their upcoming conference next week in Davos, they have released a Future of Jobs report that we will analyze and explore.

I’m on the line with economist and founder of Pan African Investments, Dr. Iraj Abedian, to discuss this topic. Dr. Iraj, thank you for being with us. The World Economic Forum’s report is quite thought-provoking. What insights does it offer about the labor market both locally and globally?

IRAJ ABEDIAN: First and foremost, Jimmy, let me wish you and our listeners a happy new year. Regarding this report, it’s important to point out that the World Economic Forum isn’t alone in making predictions about the global job markets.

Nearly all research institutions convey a similar narrative, suggesting that the traditional classifications of jobs—from low-skilled to highly skilled—are becoming increasingly antiquated.

Nonetheless, all job categories will experience significant effects from digitalization, generative technologies, and artificial intelligence [AI], as well as from the evolving landscape of workplaces.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we adjusted to remote working; this is just the beginning.

A significant number of roles—potentially 40-45% of traditional positions—such as administrative and clerical jobs, may be entirely eliminated, similar to how typewriters became obsolete and typist positions disappeared as we once understood them. This is the fundamental premise.

To envision the future of work, we must adopt systemic thinking, consider applications, prioritize automation, and importantly, understand the digitalization and organization of job markets.

This presents a considerable challenge for everyone, especially for the younger generation. There are additional dimensions we can explore as well.

JIMMY MOYAHA: One such aspect is the essential skills. What does this transformation mean for the skills that will be in demand? As you pointed out, typewriters are no longer relevant, and automation is becoming more widespread, suggesting that new skill sets will be necessary. What skills should we anticipate in the future?

IRAJ ABEDIAN: At the heart of this transition is the necessity for analytical skills, the ability to create applications, and the re-automation of processes. This includes proficiencies in software development, data integration, management of large datasets, and a global perspective on database utilization. Furthermore, the ability to leverage big data across various sectors—medical, marketing, production, etc.—will be vital.

Thus, the shift, as I see it, will transition from low-skilled, frontline roles to skill-intensive, knowledge-driven, and analytics-focused positions.

This signifies a drastic change in income distribution and a notable alteration in the age demographics of those employable.

Moreover, individuals are likely to remain in the workforce longer; the conventional retirement age of 55 to 65 could be pushed beyond that. As a result, we may witness a rise in entry-level unemployment, which carries socio-economic and political implications.

JIMMY MOYAHA: Dr. Iraj, what steps can a country take to prepare for this? As an economist, you focus on economic growth and development. How can economies, such as South Africa’s, adapt to the recognized changes brought forth by AI, considering that new sectors and markets require nurturing? What strategies can ensure that the economy evolves and flourishes in this shifting workspace?

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IRAJ ABEDIAN: To be honest, I wish I had all the answers…

Let me be entirely open: the pace of change is so rapid that we will see more transformations in the next five years than we’ve witnessed in the previous 50 or even 20 years.

The velocity of these changes makes it challenging to forecast the future, as it demands an understanding of what the next five years will entail—an understanding that we currently lack. With utmost humility, I admit that very few can confidently claim to know.

Secondly, we must fundamentally rethink our educational system, moving away from the conventional schooling methods introduced during the Industrial Revolution toward a model centered on human-resource development.

This requires preparing younger generations for a dramatically different approach to acquiring knowledge, applying it, and networking what they know with what they do not.

This reimagining of education is essential in nations like ours, where the educational system confronts unique challenges. I want to stress that I’m not referring to philosophy. Right now, politicians and policymakers are focused on fundamental needs, such as ensuring proper sanitation in schools, rather than transforming our education systems into holistic human-resource development models aimed at lifelong learning that adequately prepares our youth for analytical thought from an early age—not merely through six or seven hours of formal schooling.

This represents a significant shift in our human-resource development strategy, addressing needs before, during, and after formal education, as well as life after employment.

Personally, I have had to adapt my skills several times over the last ten years. With every technological advancement, my field has been impacted, requiring me to keep up or face obsolescence.

This presents a major obstacle for countries like South Africa—we must change the conversation. Acknowledging the urgency of the situation is crucial, and we need to pursue immediate measures that enable human-resource development, such as enhancing broadband access, among other considerations. Consequently, this issue is at the heart of our challenges.

JIMMY MOYAHA: The only constant in life is change [chuckles], and that is exactly what the report suggests.

We’ll need to conclude our conversation here. Dr. Iraj, I genuinely appreciate your time and insights.

Iraj Abedian, an economist and founder of Pan African Investments, has been reflecting on the World Economic Forum’s latest Future of Jobs report, which highlights several ongoing transitions and the necessity for reevaluation as we approach the future of employment.

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