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JEREMY MAGGS: We are currently observing a new respiratory virus situation in China reminiscent of the early stages of Covid-19, drawing considerable global attention. The South African government has confirmed it is monitoring developments closely. What does this mean for us back home?

I’m joined now by Professor Cheryl Cohen, head of the Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. Professor, it’s a pleasure to have you with us. What do we know about the situation in China at this moment?

CHERYL COHEN: Good afternoon, Jeremy. Thank you for inviting me. At present, there is an increase in respiratory illnesses in China, but labeling it an outbreak may be somewhat exaggerated. As you’ve pointed out, the media has been extensively covering it. Currently, China is experiencing winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which typically sees a rise in respiratory infections, and this aligns with our observations.

While respiratory illnesses are on the rise in China, the World Health Organisation confirms that this is consistent with what we would normally expect during winter.

JEREMY MAGGS: It can be easy to draw premature conclusions, but is there any indication that this virus could develop into a global threat akin to Covid-19?

CHERYL COHEN: Yes, global concern stems from the historical context of Covid emerging from China. The virus predominantly under discussion is the human metapneumovirus (HMPV), along with other common winter viruses like rhinovirus and influenza now circulating.

This virus is not a new pathogen; it has been recognized for years as one of the contributors to typical winter cold and flu symptoms.

We already have this virus in South Africa, circulating year-round and contributing to respiratory diseases.

At this stage, we do not classify it as a significant threat. It’s prevalent here already, and since we are in summer, we do not expect high levels to affect the population, who have developed immunity to it.

JEREMY MAGGS: Currently, there’s no evidence suggesting that the virus can be transmitted via international travel, though South Africans might feel anxious about visitors from impacted areas.

CHERYL COHEN: When considering international travel, it’s essential to understand that respiratory viruses can spread worldwide. For example, influenza typically travels from the Northern Hemisphere during its winter months. However, human metapneumovirus does not undergo rapid evolution, and we already have it within our borders. Therefore, while isolated cases may emerge, it is not viewed as a significant concern for importation since no unusual signals regarding the virus have been identified. The current circulation pattern appears seasonal.

JEREMY MAGGS: The government is rightly keeping an eye on the developments. Are there specific measures currently in place to address potential developments, or should new measures be introduced?

CHERYL COHEN: The government, in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, is always monitoring for global signals of emerging threats, whether viral or otherwise. We are actively observing the situation in China.

South Africa has a pandemic preparedness plan in place, developed and refined post the last pandemic to ensure we can respond effectively.

However, given that the risk assessment stemming from China is currently low, no additional measures are required at this time.

JEREMY MAGGS: Concerning the pandemic preparedness plan, do you believe we are now better equipped to handle potential outbreaks than in the past?

CHERYL COHEN: Absolutely. We have learned significant lessons from the challenges posed by Sars-CoV-2 (the coronavirus). We’ve identified which strategies work effectively and which do not. The South African government has made substantial investments to enhance our readiness, partnering with international organizations like the World Health Organisation to refine our plans and conduct simulations to evaluate these improvements.

Therefore, I believe our current preparedness is better than before.

JEREMY MAGGS: On this topic, is there an increased level of global cooperation in understanding and managing outbreaks? Is the world working together more effectively in this area?

CHERYL COHEN: Indeed, there are significant initiatives aimed at enhancing global collaboration on multiple levels. A crucial factor is the prompt sharing of viruses and data as they arise. For instance, the information we have about the increase in respiratory viruses in China comes from weekly reports issued by the China CDC.

Since the pandemic, China has implemented a structured approach to monitor respiratory diseases, generating reports that help evaluate the current situation against previous years.

This is a prime example of transparent communication, which has become critical for global risk assessment since the pandemic.

JEREMY MAGGS: In closing, you’re not particularly worried about the current situation.

CHERYL COHEN: As of now, we assess the risk as low, and there are no grounds for concern. We will continue monitoring developments closely. If a novel virus emerges or there is a significant rise in disease levels, we would re-evaluate our risk. But for the moment, there’s no cause for alarm.

JEREMY MAGGS: Thank you very much, Professor. Cheryl Cohen, head of the Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

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