The significant rise in emissions from global tourism can be traced back to just 20 nations, with existing strategies to tackle the problem falling short.

This forms the core finding of our recent study, published in Nature Communications, which delivers the most comprehensive and detailed examination of tourism emissions thus far.

Discover: How tourism must evolve to effectively tackle climate change

Our research aggregates a variety of datasets, including data released by 175 governments over an eleven-year period (2009-2020). It utilizes the UN-approved framework for assessing sustainable tourism, combined with tourism expenditure data alongside emissions intensity from national accounts.

The findings point to significant hurdles in the current context. The UN Environment Programme stresses the necessity for a 42% reduction in global emissions by 2030 (and 57% by 2035). Failure to meet these targets could jeopardize the Paris Agreement’s objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.

In contrast, emissions from global tourism are escalating at a rate that is double that of the global economy.

Our research reveals that between 2009 and 2019, emissions increased by 40%, rising from 3.7 gigatonnes (7.3% of global emissions) in 2009 to 5.2 gigatonnes (8.8% of global emissions) by 2019.

Although tourism emissions sharply declined in 2020-2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the rebound to pre-pandemic figures has been rapid.

Rapid growth without technological advancements

Tourism-related emissions grew by an annual average of 3.5% from 2009 to 2019, contrasting with the broader economic growth rate of 1.5% during the same period. If these trends continue, global tourism emissions could potentially double in the next two decades.

The carbon intensity of tourist expenditures is 30% above the global average, and four times that of the service sector.

The main driver for the increase in emissions is the heightened demand for tourism. The rising carbon footprint largely stems from air travel (21%), gasoline and diesel vehicle usage (17%), and utilities such as electricity (16%).

Slow progress in efficiency via technological advancements has been overshadowed by this escalating demand.

Air travel accounts for half of direct tourism emissions, underscoring its critical vulnerability within the global tourism emissions landscape. Despite years of commitments, the global air transport sector has struggled to attain significant decarbonization through new technologies.

Top 20 countries responsible for emissions

Our analysis reveals striking imbalances in emissions growth among various nations. The United States, China, and India accounted for 60% of the increase in tourism emissions from 2009 to 2019. By 2019, these three countries were responsible for 39% of global tourism emissions.

An astounding three-quarters of global tourism emissions are produced by just 20 countries, while the remaining 155 nations collectively account for only 25%. Notably, there is currently a hundred-fold disparity in per-capita tourism footprints between the highest and lowest emitting nations.

Among the top 20 emitters, the US (both as a tourist destination and through its citizens’ travel) had the highest tourism carbon footprint in 2019, nearly totaling 1 gigatonne.

This made up 19% of the overall global tourism carbon footprint, increasing at an annual rate of 3.2%.

In 2019, the US tourism carbon footprint was approximately 3 tonnes per resident, positioning it 12th globally among countries with the most elevated per-capita tourism emissions.

The United Kingdom was ranked 7th globally as a travel destination, contributing 128 megatonnes (2.5% of the total). UK residents emitted 2.8 tonnes per person in 2019, placing them 15th worldwide.

Australia ranked 14th globally in terms of tourism carbon footprint (82 megatonnes), with a per-capita footprint of 3.4 tonnes in 2019 (8th position globally). This underscores the considerable emissions related to long-distance air travel for international trips.

In 2019, New Zealand’s per-capita tourism carbon footprint reached 3.1 tonnes per person (10th globally), with long-haul international travel presenting a notable concern, similar to Australia.

Four strategies for decarbonizing tourism

This year’s UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) marked a historic moment for tourism. The UN Tourism acknowledged our findings and noted that tourism now accounts for 8.8% of total global emissions.

It emphasized that COP29 “represents a crucial moment, where aspiration meets action, turning vision into commitment for a sustainable future for our planet.”

Yet, our research highlights that the interplay between rising tourism demand and sluggish technological efficiency improvements poses formidable challenges for curbing carbon emissions associated with tourism.

Despite these challenges, we have identified four pathways to stabilize and lower global tourism emissions:

1. Evaluate tourism carbon emissions to pinpoint key areas. Our study sheds light on tourism subsectors significantly contributing to emissions growth, such as aviation, energy supply, and vehicle usage. These sectors need to aim for a 10% annual emissions reduction by 2050.
2. Avoid excessive tourism development and set sustainable growth thresholds. National strategies for tourism decarbonization should clarify and pursue sustainable growth goals, particularly in the 20 foremost emitting tourism regions.
3. Promote domestic and short-haul markets while disfavoring long-haul travel. Actively controlling the demand for air travel emerges as the most immediate measure, potentially via regulation of long-distance travel demand.
4. Tackle inequalities among nations by considering the societal costs of carbon emissions. Regulating the current unabated growth in long-haul air travel aligns with advancing a more equitable approach to tourism to address these disparities.

The primary aim of our research is to provide policymakers and industry leaders with more precise insights into the impact of tourism on global emissions. The subsequent task is to develop evidence-based policies and regulations to achieve swift decarbonization in the tourism sector.

The authors would like to thank Stefan Gössling, Manfred Lenzen, and Futu Faturay for their contributions to the research team for this project, which culminated in the Nature Communications paper that this article is based on.

James Higham is a professor of tourism at Griffith University and Ya-Yen Sun is an associate professor at the School of Business at The University of Queensland.

This article has been republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.