Since late October, protests following the election in Mozambique have disrupted trade and negatively impacted a major aluminum smelter, as the southeast African nation braces for potential further unrest next week.

The Constitutional Council is anticipated to affirm the disputed election results by December 23, while opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane has called for more demonstrations based on the outcome. The violent protests have already caused delays for 24 vessels and led six to forgo entering the country’s main port in Maputo, according to a report by terminal operator Grindrod on Thursday.

South32, which oversees the region’s largest aluminum smelter located near the port, has stated that it has scaled back electricity supply to its production facilities “to conserve raw materials and ensure operational stability.”

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According to Decide Platform, a local monitoring organization, at least 130 deaths have occurred as a result of the protests, attributing the violence to law enforcement actions. This turmoil has unleashed some of the worst political instability the country has experienced in years, impacting the economy and unsettling investors.

Mozambique’s $900 million eurobond has fallen for a ninth consecutive day, now trading at less than 81 cents on the dollar—marking the longest stretch of losses since July 2022. Furthermore, the local division of Standard Bank Group has updated its growth forecast for 2024 down to 2.5%, compared to 5.4% last year.

This week, the protests have subsided following Mondlane’s call to pause demonstrations after a tropical cyclone struck Mozambique’s northern coast on Sunday, reportedly leading to at least 73 fatalities, according to state television.

Despite this, Mondlane cautioned in a livestream on Monday that the decision of the Constitutional Council will determine if “the country descends into peace or spirals into disorder and chaos,” while he has fled to an undisclosed location.

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