The expansion of Chinese cement factories in Africa is an unmistakable trend. In 2023, we documented nine new cement projects underpinned by Chinese investments in Africa, with an additional five expected in 2024 up to this point.

The divergence in economic circumstances between China and Africa is driving this surge in cement investments. In China, the real estate market is faltering, resulting in cement consumption of 60 million tonnes per year, against a production capacity of 130 million tonnes. This oversupply increases the risk of bankruptcy for producers lacking robust export markets. Strict environmental regulations in China further discourage local cement manufacturing, leading companies to relocate operations abroad.

As a result, Chinese companies are actively seeking lucrative opportunities internationally, and Africa’s growing infrastructure demands perfectly align with this approach.

While cement prices in China fell to $41/ton in 2023, prices in key markets such as Ethiopia and DRC soared to $111/ton.

Moreover, according to certain projections, Africa’s cement market is anticipated to expand from approximately $35 billion in 2024 to around $42 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7%. In contrast, China’s share of global cement production is forecasted to decline from over 50% in the early 2020s to about 35% by 2030.

This rising cement demand is a result of a continuing construction boom across the continent, driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, and existing infrastructure gaps. Countries like Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda are experiencing significant cement demand to support the building of roads, bridges, and housing projects. These efforts align with broader objectives outlined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which emphasizes industrialization and extensive cross-border infrastructure initiatives.

Key Chinese Players

West China Cement Limited emerges as a leading entity, operating in Ethiopia, Mozambique, the DRC, and Rwanda. In Ethiopia, WCC’s $600 million Lemi National Cement Factory, the largest in the nation, produces 15,000 tonnes of cement daily, meeting half of the national demand. Developed in partnership with East African Holding within a Building Materials Industrial Park, it began operations in September 2024 and exemplifies the scale of substantial Chinese investments in this sector.

In Rwanda, the Anjia Cement Factory, a $50 million investment from West International Holdings, highlights the feasibility of smaller-scale projects even in less populated markets. This facility supports Rwanda’s quest for cement self-sufficiency while creating over 1,000 local jobs. Sinoma International Engineering and Huaxin Cement are also expanding their presence across the continent, investing in Tanzania, Zambia, South Africa, and Mozambique.

These companies enjoy strong policy backing associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and related FOCAC funding. For instance, South Africa’s Mamba Cement plant, established in 2014, is co-owned by Jidong Development Group (60%) and China-Africa Development Fund (CAD Fund) (40%), primarily serving the local market. Important provinces in China with cement operators eager to expand internationally include Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Guizhou. In March 2024, WCC’s Chairman, Zhang Jimin, noted that the company’s operations in Africa were the “major contributor of profits to the overall business last year.”

Sustainability and Scale Challenges

While the influx of Chinese cement factories presents opportunities, it also brings several challenges. Concerns regarding environmental sustainability arise, and an overreliance on Chinese investments for cement production could threaten the development and stability of Africa’s domestic industries amid their economic struggles. Addressing these challenges will require careful policy planning and coordination.

Nonetheless, while Africa is achieving notable progress as a global cement player, it still significantly trails China in terms of scale. For example, Dangote Cement, Africa’s leading cement producer, has an annual production capacity of 52 million tonnes across the continent. In stark contrast, China’s top cement producer, China National Building Material Co. Ltd. (CNBM), boasts a capacity exceeding ten times that—530 million tonnes per year.

With nearly four times the land area of China but only 4% of the world’s existing infrastructure, there is a compelling business case for African cement producers in regional hubs like Nigeria to match or surpass the scale of Chinese operations.

The truth is that Africa’s infrastructure needs and ambitions are not sufficiently supported by accessible, low-cost financing, which, in turn, stifles the cement market. As a result, the only commercial opportunities that progress unimpeded often revolve around real estate developments aimed at upper and middle-class consumers.

Although the information indicates that Chinese cement producers are more attuned to the potential within Africa than many other foreign investors—who are unfamiliar with rapid urbanization and infrastructure growth—such engagements remain limited and do not achieve their full potential, particularly from a developmental perspective.

Seizing the Opportunity

So, what should the next steps be to take advantage of this opportunity?

Two crucial actions are required: one aimed at generating immediate results, and the other focused on more medium-term achievements.

First, it is certain that Chinese cement producers will continue to seek both greenfield and brownfield investment options in Africa. African governments should actively market their countries—especially special economic zones—as prime investment locations directly to major cement enterprises in China. To fully leverage these investments, Chinese companies must emphasize sustainable production practices to mitigate reputational risks and align with China’s commitments toward a more sustainable Africa-China future. Facilities employing Chinese technology have already facilitated environmental improvements in China’s domestic cement production, achieving reductions in emissions by over 50% in certain cases.

Second, collaboration between African governments and both African and Chinese financial institutions is essential to tap into Africa’s growing infrastructure demand—particularly in large-scale cross-border initiatives. On the African side, institutions such as AfDB, Afreximbank, AFC, and Shelter Afrique are leading efforts to finance cement plants or infrastructure developments that will boost cement demand. On the Chinese side, China Eximbank, CADFUND, CAFIC, Silk Road Fund, CDB, along with China-based multilateral organizations like NDB and AIIB, play significant roles. Notably, the latter holds the potential for innovative financing solutions to support regional infrastructure development, further advancing initiatives like the AfCFTA and the AU’s Agenda 2063.

In conclusion, the data underscores a reality we at DR frequently observe in Africa-China relations: the mutually beneficial economic equation that expanding African markets often presents for Chinese enterprises. However, ensuring that this balance of benefits favors Africa is crucial and represents an opportunity for millions of Africans to lift themselves out of poverty through large-scale infrastructure investments. Our outlook on cement is that realizing this potential will require strategic planning and innovation. Yet, it is certainly attainable—China itself demonstrates this capability.