On December 7, Ghana will hold general elections to elect both the president and members of parliament. About 18.8 million Ghanaians are registered to take part in the voting process.

The political environment in Ghana is chiefly shaped by two major parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This bipartite system fosters a highly competitive atmosphere. Current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama are the frontrunners in the polls.

Bawumia has been serving as Vice President under Nana Akufo-Addo for eight years, with the incumbent ineligible for re-election due to term limits. Mahama previously occupied the presidency from 2012 for a duration of four-and-a-half years before being defeated in the 2016 elections.

Other prominent candidates include Nana Kwame Bediako, a well-known businessman, and Alan Kyerematen, the former Minister of Trade and Industry, who left the NPP last year.

Often hailed as a beacon of democracy in Africa, Ghana has built a robust reputation for its election processes, highlighted by its routine and peaceful transitions of power since the revival of multiparty democracy in 1992. Based on historical trends, results are expected to be announced by December 10.

According to Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House, the outcome of the election remains unpredictable.

“This election is anticipated to be fiercely contested. Earlier this year, I thought the NDC would secure an easy victory. Now, I’m less certain; a presidential runoff could occur, and the NDC might perform well in parliament while the NPP could secure the presidency. Ultimately, we won’t know until Ghanaians cast their votes.”

Economy central to contest

The forthcoming elections in Ghana have highlighted several pressing issues, especially economic management, as voters express growing concerns regarding inflation, high unemployment, the rising cost of living, frequent power outages, and national debt.

Naidoo emphasizes that the mix of pre-existing challenges, such as excessive borrowing and public spending that led to Ghana’s 2022 default, along with global disruptions, have created financing difficulties, dwindling international reserves, surging inflation, and a weakening cedi. He points out that the downturn in commodity prices affecting the cocoa and oil industries, compounded by hyperinflation at the end of 2022, has left many people feeling “really fatigued.”

In May 2023, the IMF authorized a 36-month extended credit facility worth approximately $3 billion for Ghana, which is expected to last until 2026. Recently, the fund approved the third review of the programme, allowing for the immediate disbursement of around $360 million.

While the programme is subject to regular reviews and may change according to the election outcomes, both parties are likely to have to operate within its financial limits.

Within these constraints, the parties are trying to carve out distinctive approaches. Political analyst Jervin Naidoo from Oxford Economics Africa notes that Mahama’s NDC intends to increase government spending in social sectors, while Bawumia’s NPP aims for economic stability by reducing inflation and encouraging private sector investment.

“In terms of demands and immediate economic impacts, significant changes are unlikely because Ghana’s fiscal policy is bound by the IMF programme,” Naidoo states.

Bright Simons, a Ghanaian social innovator, entrepreneur, writer, and commentator, tells African Business that the electorate’s focus on urgent issues discourages parties from making bold promises for major reforms.

A tough road ahead

The foremost challenge remains inflation. Consumer prices, which have surged over the past three months, rose by 23% year-on-year in November, compared to 22.1% in October, largely due to increasing costs of essential food items.

Moreover, the strength of the cedi presents a significant obstacle. The currency has depreciated sharply against the US dollar as a result of the economic strains brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, further exacerbated in 2022 when Ghana defaulted on a substantial portion of its external debt.

Since early 2020, the US dollar has appreciated nearly 180% against the Ghanaian cedi, which currently trades at approximately 15 to the dollar, up from 11 in May 2023.

Confronting these challenges—while engaging with the IMF to reform the economy and secure investments—will be a considerable task for the next administration, according to Vines.

“The new administration will face a formidable challenge in reforming the Ghanaian economy and attracting new investment for sustainable growth. Politicians often tend to make grand promises while underestimating the difficult choices that await; this pattern is common in democratic elections. Their pledges must be critically evaluated.”